Bullish or Bearish? Wednesday, Sep 1 2010 

The market this year has had some rough times. The rally which started in March of 2009 topped out in April of 2010 and caused the market to trend lower for the last 5 months. But as mentioned in my last article the market is approaching a moment in time when a solid buying opportunity will emerge.

On the bearish side of the equation we have weak economic growth, stubbornly high unemployment, massive budget deficits, and a weak banking sector. There is also the issue with the Hindenburg Omen, for which a downside move of just a few more percent would make the signal a success.

On the bullish side we have an equities market that seems overvalued from a PE perspective is undervalued based on dividend yield when compared with similar yields on US Treasuries, AAII surveys showing that small investors are bearish, and favorable profit growth in the large cap sector.

The stock market has in many way mirrored the returns of the market in the 70’s where we had whipsawing action sideways for many years until inflation was dealt with by Paul Volker and set the stage for the great bull market in equities that ran until 2000.

Intel’s announcement guiding revenues and gross margins lower in the third quarter may be the harbinger of earnings warnings in the tech sector as companies move to get the bad news out early.

September is a month where earnings and economic worries are likely to provide some stormy weather for the markets but once we move into the fourth quarter the skies should clear for a nice rally into 2011 although we are likely to end the year on the downside.

As mentioned before, there are a number of high quality blue chip stocks with attractive dividend yields that can provided comfort to investors with a steady income stream. Once the weather clears these stocks should lead the market higher as investors look to dividends for safety in these turbulent times.

Disclaimer
Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.
Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

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The Hindenburg Omen – A Potential Fat Tail Event on the Horizon? (revised) Tuesday, Aug 24 2010 

The S&P 500 has been flashing a number of technical signals to the market over the month of August. Amongst the various signal we had an inverse head and shoulders and an ascending wedge giving investors bullish and bearish signals. August 11th provided a resolution with the ascending wedge breaking down and the market moving significantly lower. More troublesome was the market’s action the next three trading days. After large moves in one direction the market typically consolidates in the opposite direction as short term traders look to book profits and others buy on dips/sell into strength. What we had was the opposite, a market that could not move higher and instead drifted lower.

On August 12th, a Hindenburg Omen signal was triggered. A Hindenburg Omen is a statistical sign made up of market indicators which foreshadows a move to the downside. Just one Hindenburg Omen is not enough as there needs to be confirmation of the first signal within 36 days. If this signal is not confirmed then the signal is not valid.

The Hindenburg Omen has 5 criteria which must be met.

1. The NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
2. The McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
3. The new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs.) This is a mandatory condition.
4. The daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day with
5. The smaller of the two numbers being greater than or equal to 69.

Delving into these criteria what we find is an indicator which attempts to signal the possible occurrence of a fat tail event.

First, we have a rising NYSE 10 Week moving average which suggests a market trending upward followed up by a fair portion of stocks making new highs.

But underneath the surface there is trouble. The McClellan Oscillator, used by traders to gauge market breadth, is negative signaling that more stocks are falling than rising. This is a sign that a correction may be approaching.

Next we have the 52 Week Highs and Lows. In an rising market one would expect significantly more new 52 Week Highs than new 52 Week Lows. But here the number of new 52 Week Lows are close to the number of 52 Week Highs, relatively speaking.

The number of 52 Week Lows are also more than 2.2% of the total NYSE issues traded that day. This sends a signal that the 52 Week Lows tail is getting fatter, a sign of underlying weakness.

What we find is that while the market appears calm, there is significant turmoil and weakness underneath the surface.

While a Hindenburg Omen does not mean the market will crash it is a signal that a fat tail event may be approaching in terms of a market pullback.

Thursday and Friday of last week provided a confirmation of the original signal. According to the Hindenburg Omen there should be a move to the downside in the next 40 days.

This does not mean there will be a crash. The downside move could only be as small as 5.5% for the signal to be accurate.

It is not my belief that we are heading for a second stock market crash but investors should tighten stops on long positions and/or hedge long positions until the danger passes.

The underlying market weakness following the markets drop on August 11th combined with weak economic reports should give investors pause. The inability of the market to move higher indicates a lack of buyers as investors seem to be waiting on the sidelines.

Now there is good news to report. This drop, should it occur, would put in a major low for the four year Presidential cycle leading to a solid rally into 2011. In other words, protect your long positions and get your cash ready to allocate so you can buy at the bottom.

Disclaimer
Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.
Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

Hindenburg Confirmation and Political Comment Friday, Aug 20 2010 

For readers wondering about my political views, I am an independent voter with conservative leanings. When looking at politics in the context of investment decisions I place the political news in a box and set my personal feelings to the side in order to look at the political machinations with a clear eye and mind while searching for how it will affect the markets. With the invisible hand becoming more pronounced in the Treasury markets it helps to understand and watch how things unfold rather than letting something negatively color your viewpoints and potentially ruin a trade. Politics and investing are like oil and water, they do not mix well and it helps to keep both separated. When they do mix watch how they settle and let Mr. Market do the talking.

Today’s drop on weak economic news triggered the first confirmation of the Hindenburg Omen. The 10 week moving average is still rising, the McClellan Oscillator turned negative, New Highs were above the minimum level and the New Lows just barely beat the minimum of 69 new lows by 1 with 70 New Lows on the day. Both New Highs and New Lows were above the minimum and the New Highs were not twice the New Lows.

While the Hindenburg Omen does not guarantee a stock market crash the closer they signals are together and the number of signals should send a warning to investors. That said, I will repeat what I said earlier this week:

“While a Hindenburg Omen does not mean the market will crash it is a signal that a fat tail event may be approaching in terms of a market pullback.

It is not my belief that we are heading for a second stock market crash but investors should tighten stops on long positions and/or hedge long positions until the danger passes.

The underlying market weakness following Wednesday’s drop combined with weak economic reports should give investors pause. The inability of the market to move higher indicates a lack of buyers as investors seem to be waiting on the sidelines.

Now there is good news to report. This drop, should it occur, would put in a major low for the four year Presidential cycle leading to a solid rally into 2011. In other words, protect your long positions and get your cash ready to allocate so you can buy at the bottom.”

Disclaimer
Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.
Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

The Hindenburg Omen – A Potential Fat Tail Event on the Horizon? Tuesday, Aug 17 2010 

Last week the S&P 500 had been flashing a number of technical signals to the market. Amongst the various signal we had an inverse head and shoulders and an ascending wedge giving investors bullish and bearish signals. Wednesday provided a resolution with the ascending wedge breaking down and the market moving significantly lower. More troublesome was the market’s action the next three trading days. After large moves in one direction the market typically consolidates in the opposite direction as short term traders look to book profits and others buy on dips/sell into strength. What we had was the opposite, a market that could not move higher and instead drifted lower.

On Thursday, a Hindenburg Omen signal was triggered. A Hindenburg Omen is a statistical sign made up of market indicators which foreshadows a move to the downside. Just one Hindenburg Omen is not enough as there needs to be confirmation of the first signal within 36 days. If this signal is not confirmed then the signal is not valid.

The Hindenburg Omen has 5 criteria which must be met.

1. The NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
2. The McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
3. The new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs.) This is a mandatory condition.
4. The daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day with
5. The smaller of the two numbers being greater than or equal to 69.

Delving into these criteria what we find is an indicator which attempts to signal the possible occurrence of a fat tail event.

First, we have a rising NYSE 10 Week moving average which suggests a market trending upward followed up by a fair portion of stocks making new highs.

But underneath the surface there is trouble. The McClellan Oscillator, used by traders to gauge market breadth, is negative signaling that more stocks are falling than rising. This is a sign that a correction may be approaching.

Next we have the 52 Week Highs and Lows. In an rising market one would expect significantly more new 52 Week Highs than new 52 Week Lows. But here the number of new 52 Week Lows are close to the number of 52 Week Highs, relatively speaking.

The number of 52 Week Lows are also more than 2.2% of the total NYSE issues traded that day. This sends a signal that the 52 Week Lows tail is getting fatter, a sign of underlying weakness.

What we find is that while the market appears calm, there is significant turmoil and weakness underneath the surface.

While a Hindenburg Omen does not mean the market will crash it is a signal that a fat tail event may be approaching in terms of a market pullback.

It is not my belief that we are heading for a second stock market crash but investors should tighten stops on long positions and/or hedge long positions until the danger passes.

The underlying market weakness following Wednesday’s drop combined with weak economic reports should give investors pause. The inability of the market to move higher indicates a lack of buyers as investors seem to be waiting on the sidelines.

Now there is good news to report. This drop, should it occur, would put in a major low for the four year Presidential cycle leading to a solid rally into 2011. In other words, protect your long positions and get your cash ready to allocate so you can buy at the bottom.

Disclaimer
Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.
Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.