Toronto Money Show 2011 Part 1 Friday, Sep 16 2011 

Toronto Money Show 2011 Part 1

Contemplating Japanese Investment During These Devastating Times Monday, Mar 14 2011 

Contemplating Japanese Investment During These Devastating Times

Commodities Thoughts – September 15, 2010 Thursday, Sep 16 2010 

CRB Index – The short-term chart is at a critical juncture. A break above 280 would mean a move to test the yearly high of 294 and a breakout from its technical pattern and base. This would signal a move higher for commodities in general and likely fuel speculation about building inflationary pressures in the system.

Crude Oil (WTIC) – Still moving sideways in this base pattern but having problems with the 200 day moving average as a resistance level. Crude oil has been trading in a volatile range this year being led by news flow concerning economic growth. A breakout above the 200 day moving average would signal a move up to the $82 level. At this point in time major oil producers with solid dividend yields provide a better play than Crude Oil itself.

Natural Gas – We have moved up off the $3.70 level as seasonal effects begin to take hold. There is still some room to run before we hit the moving averages so natural gas looks to be a decent trade at these levels although natural gas stocks with solid dividend yields are a much better play than the commodity itself. Stocks are still strong in the US and with Marcellus Shale production coming online it appears any move up will be limited.

Disclaimer
Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.
Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

Commodity Thoughts – September 3, 2010 Friday, Sep 3 2010 

Oil (WTIC) – We are stuck in a trading range between approximately $68 and $78 a barrel while economic trends resolve themselves. As an oil bull this looks like a base but a long-term base pattern which will lead us higher at some point in the future.

At this point in time oil equities are more interesting than Oil ETF’s due to their strong cash positions and high dividend yields. The dividend yields give the stocks a nice cushion in the event of a downturn in the market.

Natural Gas – Seasonal pattern are in effect here with Natural Gas trading lower in the summer months as inventories are replenished ahead of the winter season when stocks get drawn down. The chart may look ugly but it is seasonal ugly. Still not a time to go long.

Copper – Copper is trading near the top of its historical range which should give investors pause. Seasonal effects may begin to take effect as the 8000 level (~400 on the chart) is a major resistance level at which point the demand dynamic changes considerably irrespective of supply.

Disclaimer
Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.
Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

2010 Mid year commentary – Investment Thoughts Thursday, Jul 22 2010 

It was my mantra at the beginning of the year that long-term investors should stay in cash and wait for attractive buying opportunities to come along.

Price-earnings ratios are once again becoming attractive. While they may seem high and nowhere near lows that sparked past bull markets investors would be wise to begin putting together lists of favorite stocks and begin monitoring prices in anticipation of putting cash to work.

We may take 6 months to a year to find a bottom but for investors it is better to well prepared in the event a buying opportunity comes along.

At this moment, we are in a stock pickers market and you should act accordingly.

Globally, markets will likely take their cues from the US and investors should proceed with caution.

Until the US government makes a serious effort to reign in spending investors should have money in Gold and Silver as a hedge against currency debasement and loss of purchasing power relative to the world.

Gold should move to new highs later this year but will likely see some sideways to lower trading action in the near term as we move through the historically weak summer period.

Gold stocks are less attractive to me. They should be trading higher based on a higher gold price but there are some factors restraining stock prices.

First, you have rising costs at mines partly related to the depreciation of the dollar. While we point to the USD Index, the truth is over 50% of the Index is made up of the Euro and I believe approximately 90% is European currencies with little or no exposure to Asia and South America.

Second, gold stocks are aggressively acquiring the remaining low hanging fruit in the exploration area, in many cases with stock. The problem with these transactions is the effect of dilution since the acquired assets have zero revenues.

Personally, I am waiting for a bit of a pullback to the 1175-1150 area with an absolute floor at 1065.

Investors in gold equities should slide down the exploration curve, as there appears to be value at the far low end in the prospecting and drilling areas.

Silver is attractive at the current price but given its volatility relative to Gold and the chance for Gold to pull back, Silver may trade lower over the short-term.

In fact, Silver is completing a very rough and ugly head and shoulders pattern leading me to believe that we may see some weakness in the coming weeks and months.

If commodities in general pull back over fears of a slowing economy both Gold and Silver will find any potential gains limited.

Canadian banks are showing value but again prices may get cheaper over the next six months. The TSX looks oversold as do most Canadian banks.

Asian economies look to continue their recovery and growth. A slowdown in the Chinese economy will defuse talk of a large currency appreciation. Non-correlated Asian markets should do well over the second half of the year but I expect problems in the US to overshadow the growth story and mute any potential large gains.

Stock prices in China and Hong Kong should continue to struggle as IPO’s and bond sales are absorbed.

Avoid South American equity markets over the near term as the difficulties facing individual countries may spill over into neighboring countries causing problems. Some of the problems include the reconstruction efforts in Chile, government and trade problems coming out of Argentina, and a Brazilian economy firing on all cylinders.

While the oil spill in the Gulf continues to provide tremendous amounts of speculation on the ultimate size of liability for BP there are some factors to consider.

Did Exxon go out of business after the Valdez spill? No.

Did any of the cigarette companies go out of business after the government settlement? No.

Does BP have attractive assets worldwide? Yes.

Will they survive? Yes.

No doubt, there will be additional regulation, massive fines, and increased scrutiny over oil and gas operations in the Gulf, Alaska, and all over the lower 48 states but the industry will survive and move forward for the future. As a high-risk investment, BP does look attractive under $30 but remember that this is a high-risk investment. The stock could trade lower if the broader market moves lower over the second half of the year.

***Disclosure note: I own BP stock in my personal account. This is not an endorsement to buy or sell nor should it be taken as such.***

The recent decline was due to portfolio window dressing as I noticed that Gold and certain Asian markets where I trade (which are up for the year) held up and saw buying as the US market (which is down) fell as portfolio managers rushed to tweak portfolios ahead of the mid-year reports.

The rally last week in the US was not met with a similar rally in the markets I follow which, in addition to weak volume, leads me to be very cautious.

It is my opinion that we are still in a topping formation and look to see lower markets through the end of the year with the major indices ending up down for the year.

Personally, I am putting together a buy list of stocks with good dividend yields and earning bases and plan on waiting for the right moment to allocate capital.

In the coming weeks and months I will expand more upon the themes touched on during the first and second parts of my commentary.

Disclaimer
Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.
Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.