The Week in Review, October 15, 2010 Saturday, Oct 23 2010 

Another slow start to the week as investors waited patiently on 3rd quarter earnings and additional information concerning the foreclosure problems in the banking industry.

China shocked global markets by raising their one year lending rate from 5.31% to 5.56% and the deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5% just a week after raising reserve requirements at the largest banks. This sent global markets tumbling but the PBOC may be successful in letting the air out of a property bubble by taking a proverbial shot across the bow.

China now joins a litany of central banks across Asia who have begun a rate raising cycle aimed at shutting down the easy credit which has been prevalent over the past two years.

Strong earnings from IBM and Apple buoyed the tech sector and the markets rallied on Wednesday.

The Bank of Canada chose to hold steady with interest rates as they wait to see how the slowdown in the US plays out.

Economic statistics out of Germany indicate a stronger than expected economy. The stronger Euro does not seem to be affecting exports.

England is looking to cut approximately 8% of the public sector jobs in order to implement austerity measures.

Next Week

This weekend – G20 finance ministers and central bankers meet in Korea.

Monday – Bernanke, Dudley, and Bullard all speak

Tuesday – Riksbank meeting

Wednesday – US durable goods, Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting, Bank of Japan target rate released

Thursday –

Friday – Japan CPI, US 3rd Q GDP, Canada 3rd Q GDP, US Chicago PMI

Disclaimer
Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.
Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

Technical Commentary – October 18th Monday, Oct 18 2010 

Canada (TSX) – The TSX broke out of its downtrend in late August and made new highs for the year. On the chart below, we have a double top made last week. If the TSX pulls back in the coming week it will likely move back to the 12300 support level.
This week will herald some important news, which I will discuss tomorrow.

S&P 500 – The S&P 500 is at a resistance level, which needs to be taken out before it can make a move to the 1220.

It appears as though technically we may be in the process of making a top similar to the one made earlier this year. While the S&P may push through these levels and continue to move higher it is possible that we see a pull back around the end of October/early November for the reasons we stated last week.

I am not short the market BUT looking at the speed at which selloffs occurred this year, it would be prudent risk management to protect your trading gains by tightening up stop losses in the event we see a sell off as traders and hedge funds choose to lock in performance gains for the year.

Disclaimer
Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.
Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

The Week in Review, October 15, 2010 Friday, Oct 15 2010 

The week started slow enough with the Columbus Day holiday and picked up steam on the backs of solid earnings reports from Intel, Google, and JP Morgan.

Thursday brought some consternation as the 30-year bond auction came in with a yield of 3.852% well above estimates as foreign buyers apparently stayed home.

Overseas, the Yen fell to fresh lows and Thailand established some curbs to assist exporters and try to stem the flow of hot money into the country without damaging FDI.

China raised the reserve requirement by 50 basis points to try to cool down lending and better manage economic growth.

China’s foreign reserves also soared to 2.648 billion in the 3rd Quarter.

The Bank of Korea held interest rates steady at 2.25% amidst an 8% surge in the Won against the dollar in the past three months amidst faltering exports and inflation.

Policy makers in India stated that they are considering different options aimed at defending the rapidly appreciating Rupee.

Markets sold off on Friday as Ben Bernanke confirmed everyone’s rumors that the Federal Reserve is looking to purchase more US Treasury bonds but is unsure at this time as to the size of the program.

Next Week

Monday – Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization in the US

Tuesday – Reserve Bank of Australia minutes, ECOFIN meeting, Bank of Canada rate announcement

Wednesday – Bank of England minutes

Thursday – China 3rd Quarter GDP,

Friday – Hoenig speaks (noteworthy in that he has been against keeping rates low)

Disclaimer
Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.
Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

The Week in Review, October 7, 2010 Monday, Oct 11 2010 

On Monday we opened with a selloff down to the bottom of the trend channel where we rattled around for most of the day.

Chevron will begin buying back shares at the rate of $500 million to $1 billion dollars per quarter.

Tuesday brought a surprise rate cut from the Japanese pushing rates back to essentially zero and pledges to buy 5 trillion yen in continued efforts to revive the economy and protect the currency.

The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep rates steady in a surprise move as well. The RBA was expected to hike rates by 25 bp in an effort to put a lid on inflationary pressures.

The Indonesian Central Bank held steady as well choosing not to raise interest rates.

Tuesday’s big move looked to be a coordinated action in order to help Japan. Inflationary pressures are on the rise in Asia everywhere except for Japan and while the Indonesian Central Bank was expected to keep rates on hold Australia was widely expected to raise rates.

Euro zone 2nd Q GDP came in at 1.0%, unchanged from the previous estimate.

While Trichet held ECB rates steady he made some curious comments about the ECB making policy for the euro area as a whole and not for a few countries. The implication is that if the larger countries continue to expand the policy rate will be hiked even if there are countries still in a recession. If true, this is a thinly veiled message to the PIIGS that they will need to get their house in order quickly as waiting increases the risk that they will be left behind.

The US unemployment report showed a mixed bag in September as businesses are still hesitant to add jobs. While the headline rate was steady at 9.6% the U-6 rate, which is described as the “total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force”, jumped by 0.5% to 17.1%.

Next Week

Monday – Canadian markets closed

Tuesday – Minutes from FOMC meeting

Wednesday – Euro Industrial Production for September

Thursday – US PPI, OPEC meeting Vienna

Friday – Japan Industrial Production, Europe Core Inflation, US CPI, and Retail Sales

Disclaimer
Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.
Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

Gold Bullion – On the verge of a major breakout? Wednesday, Sep 8 2010 

Historically, the argument against Gold was that it provided no yield to investors. Stocks, bonds, and cash all provide some sort of yield so Gold as an investment has no merit.

But that view appears to be changing, with volatility in the equity markets, bonds now providing little or no yield (witness the US treasury yield curve and IBM’s latest offering), and money markets and cd’s providing scant yields Gold is looking much more attractive as a place to park cash.

Seasonally, the fourth and first quarters of a year are the most bullish for Gold.

In countries such as China and India which are experiencing strong economic growth Gold is looked at as a store of value. In both countries imports of Gold are rising as citizens view Gold as lucky and a store of value.

Recent news out of Europe indicates market participants are increasingly worried about the stress tests performed on European banks as they are increasingly being viewed as not that stressful at all.

In the US the economy appears to be slowing into a 1-2% growth range, with a budget deficit of over a trillion dollars, new spending proposals, and the Federal Reserve instituting a Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP).

So while we look over the world we see two major areas with slow growth, Europe and the US, and investors rushing to Gold as a safe haven to protect against problems in the banking sector and at the sovereign level.

In Asia strong economic growth is allowing investors to diversify their wealth by purchasing and giving Gold as gifts.

While we may be near a major resistance level, Gold has provided investors with a safe haven in times of trouble. Since its rally from the 2008 lows Gold has seen rising support levels as investors buy on any dip.

Technically, the weekly charts have six straight weeks of upward price movement and may make a slight pullback at this major resistance level. Silver is also outperforming Gold as well which is often a sign that a pullback in both markets is forthcoming.

Investors would be wise to buy Gold on any dips and be ready to allocate some capital before the next leg up starts.

Next week: Gold Equities – Where is the Bull?

Disclaimer
Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.
Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

Technical observations – July 25, 2010 Monday, Jul 26 2010 

United States

S&P 500

Technically, the daily chart is having a nice rally through the 50-day moving average and after factoring in the bearish sentiment as measured by AAII this rally may have some legs in the short-term. In order to turn positive the market is going to have to move through the 200-day moving average AND the June high, which would set the stage for a rally up to the April highs.

The weekly chart is bearish with a potential head and shoulders top formation and resistance at the 50-week moving average. Failure to break through resistance will be a significantly bearish indicator and will likely signal a move to new lows on the year.

The monthly chart is bearish and has been so since March when the stochastic peaked and we tested resistance at the 50-month moving average. Currently we sit at an important crossroads testing support at the 200-month moving average. Failure to maintain this support level is a very bearish sign and sets the market up for a possible retest of previous lows.

Nasdaq Composite

The daily charts of the NASD have just pushed through the 50 and 200 day moving averages with the next target the June highs. Technical indicators appear to be getting close to overbought territory and how the index behaves as it approaches the June highs will determine if this is a short-term top or preparation for a move to test the April highs.

The weekly chart is a bit more bullish as the index has just pushed through a convergence of the 50 and 200-week moving averages. A head and shoulders pattern is in the process of forming attention should be paid in the event the current rally runs into resistance in a few weeks time.

The monthly chart has just pushed through a key resistance level with the 50-month moving average. While the technical indicators are bearish, it is not inconceivable that the current rally continues for a small amount of time before finally rolling over.

Canada

TSX

On the daily charts, the TSX is tracking the Nasdaq Composite. Having already moved through the 50 and 200 day moving averages the next test will be the recent July high, which stands very close to Friday’s close. A move higher would mean the TSX would likely test the June highs then the April highs.

It is possible the TSX will lead the US and provide market leadership over the coming weeks.

The weekly chart shows a range bound market with the 200-week moving average providing significant technical resistance. A move through the 200-week moving average would be a significant technical breakthrough and a bullish signal but as we approach that point we may see the market enter into overbought status.

The monthly chart is showing significant technical resistance at the 50-month moving average level that is approximately 200-week moving average level. A move through this level would be a very bullish indicator for the Canadian markets.

It is possible that the Canadian markets diverge for some time with the US markets as the Canadian economy as a whole emerged from the downturn relatively unscathed and the Canadian banking sector is rock solid. The biggest concern would be a slowdown in the US caused by a lack of hiring, weak banking sector, a weak housing market, and slow consumer demand. Since a significant amount of Canadian exports are dependant on the health of the US economy Canadian economic growth will likely slow over the second half of 2010 into 2011.

A strong banking sector and vibrant consumer demand will allow the Canadian economy to weather and stormy seas caused by a slowdown in the US allowing the Canadian economy to be in the sweet spot globally with moderate economic growth coupled with low inflation.

Summary

So far, our beginning of the year call to be long the first quarter and short thereafter has been correct and the market appears to be following the expected path for 2010.

Looking back over history and the four-year Presidential cycle, the stock market’s low in the 2nd year of a Presidential term provides a nice rally into the third year as the President gears up for his reelection campaign.

Currently, the cycle was thrown off by the crash in 2008 along with the sharp rebound in 2009 but should return to form this and next years.

Within the larger 10-year cycle, the stock market has negative returns during the first few years setting the stage for positive returns later in the decade.

Investors should remember that while stocks are cheap, in the context of a long-term sideways market, it does not mean they cannot get cheaper.

Classic bull markets start in times of cheap stocks, as measured by PE’s, over a long-term horizon. It is likely that PE’s will continue to move lower as we see earnings increase over the next few years setting the stage for the next classic bull market.

With the indices led higher by low quality stocks and typically underperforming markets leading the way investors should be wary over the rest of the year until a tradable low is in place.

While the market continues to churn it is best if investors wait on the sidelines for the dust to clear.

Disclaimer
Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.
Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.

Green shoots? Friday, May 29 2009 

Recent press reports concerning green shoots are leading consumers to believe that the economy has turned a corner and we are on the road to an economic recovery. However, one has to look at these reports with skepticism and filter through the noise in order to ascertain the real story behind the scenes.

GM and Chrysler’s bankruptcy and reorganization will drag down second half growth rates as long as both firms are in bankruptcy. The quicker both firms emerge the earlier we can start rebuilding consumer confidence.

Recent positive data emanating from the housing market should be watched with skepticism. Housing numbers are reported on a month-over-month comparative basis and with the average temperature rising more people are looking to purchase homes. Once fall rolls around, month-over-month comparisons will fall leading to skepticism about a recovery.

The US housing market will continue to take years removing the overhang currently in place. Uncertainty over the economy will give buyers pause before jumping into the market. An additional bulwark to a recovery in the housing sector is the banks reluctance to make loans. As long as the banking sector views holding bonds over making loans on a risk adjusted basis a housing recovery will be impeded.

Given the low amount of home equity available it is unlikely that homeowners will be able to use equity to fund durable goods purchases and home renovations. Even if a loan was written down to fair value, a bank will be unlikely to extend home equity credit after losing a significant portion of the loan and future interest income.

Since income growth will be slow due to uncertainty in the job market, consumers will not be in a mood to extract equity from their homes and will likely continue to rebuild their savings.

Consumers will spend on necessary purchases but it is unlikely that businesses will fund expansion plans until they see an economic recovery taking place.

Export growth will slow as overseas consumers and businesses look to the US for growth and leadership.

Recent dollar weakness should be viewed not as dollars leaving the country but rather investment dollars held in US Treasuries being swapped for foreign equities as funds who have missed the rally attempt to play catchup. Foreign third tier markets have jumped higher in recent weeks signaling an approaching short-term market top. Second half weakness should be met with a rise in the dollar as funds retrench ahead of the expected weakness.

The differentiator here is not foreigners pulling money out of the US but rather investment funds looking to catch a higher risk adjusted return in foreign markets after the run up in the US markets. This is similar to the events that happened in the fourth quarter of last year when overseas investments were sold and proceeds converted back into US Dollars.

Efforts to restrict government spending in a recession will cause growth to lag and risk causing the recovery to lose traction. Any efforts to restrict spending should be focused on government waste with efforts on projects which will create jobs now and in the next upcycle. Increased R&D spending along with infrastructure improvements are the projects which will provide current and future benefits. Dog parks and similar programs are wasteful spending which provides no short or long term benefits.

It is likely that the green shoots people are seeing are not the basis for a long-term recovery and just the first bottom in a W shaped economic recovery.

Disclaimer
Communications are intended solely for informational purposes. Statements made should not be construed as an endorsement, either expressed or implied. This article and the author is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content. This article may not be reproduced without credit or permission from the author. We believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable. However, errors may occasionally occur. Therefore, all information and materials are provided “AS IS” without any warranty of any kind. Past results are not indicative of future results.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN THE STOCK, BOND, AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS. WHEN CONSIDERING ANY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS, YOU SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS: OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS, CAN BE ILLIQUID, ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS, MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX INFORMATION, ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Before making any type of investment, one should consult with an investment professional to consider whether the investment is appropriate for the individuals risk profile. This is not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase any of the securities listed here. I will not be held liable or responsible for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result from the content of this article.